At ESJ Capital Partners, we have spent 17 years identifying the right real estate opportunities at the right time. Today, we believe the U.S. Sunbelt multifamily sector is entering one of its most compelling investment windows in a generation. We wanted to share the data behind our conviction, and why we are actively deploying capital in this space right now
The chart below tells the full story. New multifamily deliveries are falling off a cliff, down 53% from their 2022 peak, while the Southeast population keeps growing at 2–3x the national average. Less supply. More people. That is the setup.
Not all U.S. markets are created equal. The Sunbelt, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas, is where the structural tailwinds are the strongest. These markets combine above-average job creation, net domestic migration, and a business-friendly regulatory environment that continues to attract both residents and employers at an accelerating pace.
Population Growth Florida (+8.9%), NC (+7.2%), Georgia (+5.5%) vs. U.S. average of +3.1% from 2020–2025. The people are already there, and more are coming.
Buying a home costs 105% more than renting today. Millennials and Gen Z, the two largest renter cohorts in U.S. history, are in their peak renting years.
New construction starts are down 50%+ from peak. The 4.03M unit housing shortage is getting worse, not better. By 2027, deliveries will hit their lowest level since 2014.
Tariff-driven cost inflation on steel, lumber, and aluminum, combined with tight construction lending, means even fewer projects will break ground. Macro headwinds for developers are structural tailwinds for existing asset owners.
"The window to acquire Sunbelt multifamily assets at a discount is open right now. When the supply cliff hits in 2027, the investors who positioned early will be the ones capturing the upside."
Arnaud Sitbon,With over $1.2B in assets acquired since 2008 and deep operational roots across the Southeast, ESJ is focusing on the multifamily strategy designed to capture this structural window. We target value-add acquisitions of $30M to $90M in high-growth Sunbelt submarkets, with a target net IRR range of 12% to 14% and consistent quarterly distributions.
We would be happy to walk you through the strategy characteristics, target markets, and projected returns in detail. If you would like to discuss further or get on a call, please reach out directly.
As always, thank you for your continued trust in ESJ.
19950 West Country Club Drive
Suite 800
Aventura, FL 33180
USA
2A Rue Ermesinde,
L-8416 Steinfort
GD of Luxembourg
19950 West Country Club Drive
Suite 800
Aventura, FL 33180
USA
2A Rue Ermesinde,
L-8416 Steinfort
GD of Luxembourg